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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -176 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -192.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in the league have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year.
  • Kendrick Bourne's 3.5 adjusted catches per game this year indicates an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last year's 2.3 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • The model projects Kendrick Bourne to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack in this game (6.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.7% in games he has played).
  • The San Francisco O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Arizona cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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