Kendrick Bourne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Kendrick Bourne to accumulate 6.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Kendrick Bourne's 50.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 23.9.

Favors Under

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Kendrick Bourne's 54.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a an impressive decline in his receiving talent over last season's 74.8% rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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