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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 60.9% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • Keenan Allen has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Keenan Allen has totaled a monstrous 76.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Keenan Allen's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 61.0% to 68.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chargers being an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
  • Keenan Allen's 55.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.

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