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Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-162).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +146.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.Keenan Allen's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 61.0% to 68.0%.With an impressive rate of 0.50 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Keenan Allen places among the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers this year.Since the start of last season, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the biggest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 123.8 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.While Keenan Allen has received 40.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in Los Angeles's passing attack near the end zone this week at 29.7%.After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has seen a big decline this season, currently boasting 71.0 per game.
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