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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 60.7% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football in these cases has been the Chargers.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Chargers this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).
  • Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
  • The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to be a less important option in his team's air attack near the end zone in this contest (25.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.5% in games he has played).
  • Keenan Allen has totaled far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
  • Keenan Allen's 53.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 64.5.
  • The Chargers O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

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