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Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-455).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +420 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +325.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.The projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The Chargers rank as the 10th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 59.4% red zone pass rate.The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.0 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.After totaling 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has gotten worse this season, now pacing 63.0 per game.Keenan Allen's 50.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.The Los Angeles O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
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