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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-345).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +355 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
  • The Chargers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Keenan Allen has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Keenan Allen's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 61.0% to 68.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chargers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has fallen off this season, now pacing 66.0 per game.
  • Keenan Allen's 52.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
  • This year, the tough Eagles defense has yielded a puny 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the NFL.

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