Keenan Allen Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 9, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-345).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +355 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Chargers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
Keenan Allen has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Keenan Allen's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 61.0% to 68.1%.

Favors Under

The model projects the Chargers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
After accruing 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has fallen off this season, now pacing 66.0 per game.
Keenan Allen's 52.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
This year, the tough Eagles defense has yielded a puny 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the NFL.

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