Keenan Allen Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 13, 2025

Updated Nov 30, 2025 9:12 PM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.
The Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced run volume.
Keenan Allen has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Keenan Allen's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 61.0% to 67.5%.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 122.9 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
After accumulating 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has gotten worse this season, currently boasting 68.0 per game.
Keenan Allen's 52.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 64.5.
The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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