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Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-123/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -183 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.0 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Keenan Allen to earn 9.0 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

With an excellent 4.9 adjusted catches per game (98th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen ranks as one of the leading WRs in the game in football.

Keenan Allen's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 61.0% to 68.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 123.8 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.

Keenan Allen's 56.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 64.5.

The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

More Keenan Allen Player Props

Keenan Allen ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 6