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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to notch 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Keenan Allen profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • Keenan Allen's 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 64.5.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • The Patriots linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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