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Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

Keenan Allen ranks as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 4.5 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Keenan Allen's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 61.0% to 70.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.

While Keenan Allen has accounted for 22.4% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Los Angeles's passing offense in this contest at 17.0%.

As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.

This year, the fierce Texans defense has yielded a paltry 56.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the lowest rate in the league.

The Houston cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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Keenan Allen ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 17