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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-144/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.0% pass rate.
  • The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 61.6 per game on average).
  • The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
  • This week, Keenan Allen is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.3 targets.
  • Keenan Allen grades out as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 5.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Keenan Allen's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.
  • The Chargers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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