Keenan Allen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 8:37 PM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-144/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.0% pass rate.
The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 61.6 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
This week, Keenan Allen is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.3 targets.
Keenan Allen grades out as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 5.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Keenan Allen's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.
The Chargers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.