Keenan Allen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 11.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Keenan Allen has been more prominently used in his offense's air attack.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.5%) to WRs this year (60.5%).
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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