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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-103/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to notch 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • With an exceptional 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (78th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • After averaging 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has seen a big downtick this season, currently averaging 60.0 per game.
  • Keenan Allen's 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 64.5.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • Keenan Allen has been one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging a lowly 6.87 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs

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