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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.9 per game) this year.
  • In this week's game, Keenan Allen is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chargers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Keenan Allen has posted far fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
  • Keenan Allen's 50.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 64.5.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.
  • Keenan Allen profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 7.23 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs

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