Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.9 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Keenan Allen is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
Keenan Allen has posted far fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
Keenan Allen's 50.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 64.5.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.
Keenan Allen profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 7.23 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs