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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
  • The model projects Keenan Allen to earn 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Keenan Allen profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 51.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.2 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.
  • After totaling 78.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has gotten worse this season, now pacing 63.0 per game.
  • Keenan Allen's 50.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 64.5.
  • The Los Angeles O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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