Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 11.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has posted big gains this season, now boasting 105.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, allowing 6.59 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
The Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.83 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.