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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

Keenan Allen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Keenan Allen has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Keenan Allen's 49.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 57.9.

Keenan Allen's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.1% to 64.9%.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) to wideouts this year (64.5%).

The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.58 per game this year.

The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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