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Keaton Mitchell

Keaton Mitchell Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Keaton Mitchell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+445/-520).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +470 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +445.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs: 0.40 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
  • The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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