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Kayshon Boutte

Kayshon Boutte Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Kayshon Boutte Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-425).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -425.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
  • Kayshon Boutte's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.3% to 76.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Kayshon Boutte has accrued far fewer air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (74.0 per game).
  • Kayshon Boutte's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 47.8.
  • The Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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