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Kayshon Boutte

Kayshon Boutte Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Kayshon Boutte Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-390).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Kayshon Boutte's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 62.3% to 75.4%.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (94th percentile), Kayshon Boutte has been as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to wide receivers this year.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • After accumulating 74.0 air yards per game last year, Kayshon Boutte has undergone a big decline this year, currently sitting at 57.0 per game.
  • Kayshon Boutte's 35.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 47.8.
  • This year, the imposing Bills defense has yielded a mere 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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