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Kayshon Boutte Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-315).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -370 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -315.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.Kayshon Boutte's 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 62.3% rate.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.After accruing 74.0 air yards per game last season, Kayshon Boutte has fallen off this season, currently boasting 61.0 per game.Kayshon Boutte's 37.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 47.8.This year, the stout Bengals defense has yielded a paltry 0.60 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in football.
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