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Kayshon Boutte

Kayshon Boutte Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Kayshon Boutte Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Kayshon Boutte's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 62.3% to 66.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Kayshon Boutte's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 47.8.

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