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Kayshon Boutte

Kayshon Boutte Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Kayshon Boutte Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • Kayshon Boutte's 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 62.3% rate.
  • This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up a monstrous 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Kayshon Boutte's 37.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 47.8.

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