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KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cowboys rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.4% pass rate.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a staggering 63.5 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect KaVontae Turpin to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).

After accruing 27.0 air yards per game last year, KaVontae Turpin has seen a big uptick this year, currently pacing 38.0 per game.

KaVontae Turpin's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 65.7% to 85.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to run the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.2 per game) this year.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

This year, the fierce New York Jets defense has allowed a feeble 0.75 passing touchdowns per game to opposing WRs: the 9th-best rate in the league.

This year, the porous New York Jets run defense has allowed a massive 1.00 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

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