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KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+710/-790).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -790.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 60.6% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Dallas Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.
  • After accruing 27.0 air yards per game last season, KaVontae Turpin has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 20.0 per game.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • The Chiefs defense has yielded the 7th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.64 per game this year.

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