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KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -760 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • KaVontae Turpin's 74.8% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 65.7% rate.
  • This year, the shaky Raiders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the worst in football this year.
  • This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been gouged for a colossal 1.33 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the highest rate in the NFL.

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