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KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
KaVontae Turpin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-164).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • KaVontae Turpin has been used less as a potential target this season (42.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (28.9%).
  • KaVontae Turpin's 76.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 65.7% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • The Cowboys O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • This year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed a feeble 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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