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KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
KaVontae Turpin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+135).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Dallas's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats too low) as a result of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Kavontae Turpin has run a route on 28.9% of his team's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 18th percentile among WRs.
  • The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Last year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a feeble 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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