KaVontae Turpin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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KaVontae Turpin

NFL · Player Props

KaVontae Turpin

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:51 PM EST

Analysis

KaVontae Turpin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
Kavontae Turpin's 9.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 0.4.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.3%) to wide receivers this year (72.3%).

Favors Under

With a feeble 1.2 adjusted receptions per game (15th percentile) this year, Kavontae Turpin ranks as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Buffalo's CB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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