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KaVontae Turpin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-105).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.Kavontae Turpin's 9.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 0.4.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.Kavontae Turpin ranks as one of the bottom WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 1.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among wide receivers.As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Seattle's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
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