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KaVontae Turpin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.40 seconds per play.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.KaVontae Turpin's 44.4% Route Participation% this year marks a remarkable improvement in his passing offense workload over last year's 28.9% rate.KaVontae Turpin's 74.6% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 65.7% mark.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 5 points.Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.After averaging 27.0 air yards per game last year, KaVontae Turpin has seen a big decrease this year, currently boasting 18.0 per game.The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.KaVontae Turpin's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.26 mark last season.
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