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KaVontae Turpin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-109/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.KaVontae Turpin's 43.9% Route% this season shows an impressive growth in his pass attack utilization over last season's 28.9% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.After accruing 27.0 air yards per game last season, KaVontae Turpin has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 20.0 per game.As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.KaVontae Turpin's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.26 mark last year.
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