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Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Kareem Hunt Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

The model projects Kareem Hunt to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (6.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Jaguars defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Kareem Hunt has garnered 37.5% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.

The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Kareem Hunt's trading card this year.

Kareem Hunt has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (78th percentile).

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