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Kareem Hunt Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-870).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -870.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.The Chiefs are a massive 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 133.1 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Kareem Hunt's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 86.3% to 73.8%.Kareem Hunt has rushed for 0.53 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football when it comes to running backs (92nd percentile).This year, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has yielded a puny 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the smallest rate in football.When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Denver's DE corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.
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