Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kalif Raymond is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, catching an exceptional 76.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
With a stellar 6.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Kalif Raymond places as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL in the open field.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.
An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Kalif Raymond ranks in just the 25th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a weak 14.7 figure since the start of last season.