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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -465 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -5-point underdogs.
  • With a 59.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in these situations has been the New Orleans Saints.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Juwan Johnson has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last season, Juwan Johnson has seen marked improvement this season, now sitting at 45.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Juwan Johnson's 69.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a remarkable reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 76.7% figure.
  • This year, the poor Carolina Panthers run defense has been torched for a staggering 1.11 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 8th-largest rate in football.
  • The Panthers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year with their run defense.

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