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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-136/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (84.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (66.6%).
  • The model projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 70.5%.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

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