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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints offensive gameplan to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a giant -14.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 135.5 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.

In this game, Juwan Johnson is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.8 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Juwan Johnson's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 76.7% to 66.1%.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.2%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (73.2%).

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