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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints offense to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.

The predictive model expects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Juwan Johnson to total 6.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.1% pass rate.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season.

Juwan Johnson's 70.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 76.7% mark.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

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