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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-109/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Saints offensive scheme to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • This week's line indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 137.6 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 59.2 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) vs. TEs this year (70.1%).
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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