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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 142.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (81.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (66.6%).
  • In this week's game, Juwan Johnson is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 91st percentile among tight ends with 6.3 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • Juwan Johnson's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 76.7% to 71.5%.
  • This year, the stout Falcons defense has conceded a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 4th-lowest rate in football.
  • The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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