Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Juwan Johnson's 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 30.4.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 56.1%.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to tight ends this year (62.8%).

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