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Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-112/-112).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -112.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (84.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (66.6%).The model projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 70.5%.Juwan Johnson's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a mere 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.28 mark last season.Juwan Johnson's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.88 mark last season.As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.
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