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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 140.1 plays on offense run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The New Orleans Saints have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential target this season (85.1% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (66.6%).
  • In this game, Juwan Johnson is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 6.0 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Saints to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.2 per game) this year.
  • Juwan Johnson's 69.8% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 76.7% figure.
  • Juwan Johnson's 6.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents a substantial drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 8.3 mark.

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