Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson's talent in generating extra yardage have been refined this season, notching 4.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.38 mark last season.

Favors Under

Juwan Johnson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Juwan Johnson has been featured much less in his offense's passing attack.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Juwan Johnson has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
Juwan Johnson's 62.7% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 67.7% mark.