Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Juwan Johnson's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a measly 7.61 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 figure last season.
Juwan Johnson has been among the bottom TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.