Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to notch 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (64.0) to TEs this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.5%) vs. TEs this year (75.5%).
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 8.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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