Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (70.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has put up significantly more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a measly 8.08 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 rate last season.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 31.0) versus TEs this year.

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