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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-769).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -769.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Juwan Johnson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

Juwan Johnson has notched significantly more air yards this year (34.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).

Juwan Johnson's 24.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 14.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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